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Following recent investor meetings that addressed the significant increases in U.S. power demand we publish our base scenario for growth to 2030E, which includes: 1.8% of annual demand growth driven by data centers and commercial and industrial load growth. We expect a shift in generation market share as a result which have could have capex ramifications, the largest beneficiary being Renewables advancing to 34% from 25% market share of total dispatch or 310GW of solar and wind capacity being added. In terms of natural gases, we see 69 GW of new gas capacity (+4.8 bcf/day) being added, but overall market share declining to 39% from 44%, with coal being a net loser mostly due to retirements.

What's Our Take?

The outlook for power demand and related discussions with investors have significantly increased over the last three months, but we believe the story remains in the middle innings. Our views may position us above consensus demand but upside scenarios are likely higher (2% or more annual growth). Independent Power Producers (IPPs) benefit the most, but regulated utilities and customers could benefit from investment opportunities and lower bills. We see the next three years as more beneficial for the IPPs as tighter markets persist. The incremental build out of supply by developers and regulated utilities in response to this wave of higher demand will take several years to place into service, but should benefit those companies more in the latter part of 2027 into 2028.

Key Catalysts

Announcement of new contracts with hyperscalers, development of power market generation incentives and the appeals process to the Environmental Protection Agency rules on new and existing source fossil fuel generation represent developments worth watching. On the supply side, we will also be watching for incremental actions taken in Texas to promote additional generation beyond the current 10 GW Texas Energy Fund, which could happen during the legislative session in 1H'25.

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